Football · China Division 2 · 31/10, 07:30

Prediction: Guangzhou Dandelion vs Changchun Xidu

Team pages: Guangzhou Dandelion · Changchun Xidu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Guangzhou Dandelion1.31

Changchun Xidu0.82

1X2

47% 30% 22%

Guangzhou Dandelion Draw Changchun Xidu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangzhou Dandelion 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLDWDL

Changchun Xidu 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDDWWD

Head-to-head

Guangzhou Dandelion 0–1–0 Changchun Xidu (1 last)

Changchun Xidu1-1Guangzhou Dandelion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangzhou Dandelion 1475 · Changchun Xidu 1525

	Guangzhou Dandelion	Draw	Changchun Xidu
Our model	47%	31%	22%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changchun Xidu (rating 1475 vs 1525).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangzhou Dandelion	Changchun Xidu
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	2.88 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.04
2	3.10 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.40 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
07:01 +5’	2.25	2.88	3.10
07:59 +9’	1.90▼	3.00▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:43 +25’	1.93	2.96	4.14
08:57 +12’	1.84▼	3.04▲	4.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangzhou Dandelion 0–1–0 Changchun Xidu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/26 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	1-1 HT 1-0	Guangzhou Dandelion

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	28	10	10	8	34	28	40
2	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	28	9	12	7	30	26	39
3	Guangdong Mingtu	28	7	15	6	27	23	36
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	28	6	16	6	18	21	34
5	Changchun Xidu	28	6	14	8	21	31	32
6	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	28	35	30
7	Wenzhou FC	28	5	12	11	18	32	27
8	Shanghai Segenda	28	2	13	13	26	46	19

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangzhou Dandelion

LDWDLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
17/10	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
12/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
06/10	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
13/09	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
23/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
08/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
02/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-4	5	3	L

Changchun Xidu

LLDWWDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
18/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/10	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/09	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
22/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangzhou Dandelion vs Changchun Xidu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangzhou Dandelion win (47%). Probabilities: Guangzhou Dandelion 47%, draw 30%, Changchun Xidu 22%.

How many goals are expected in Guangzhou Dandelion vs Changchun Xidu?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Guangzhou Dandelion 1.31 · Changchun Xidu 0.82), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangzhou Dandelion vs Changchun Xidu?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.