Football · China Division 2 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Guangdong Mingtu vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Team pages: Guangdong Mingtu · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

Guangdong Mingtu1.07

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic0.83

1X2

40% 32% 27%

Guangdong Mingtu Draw Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangdong Mingtu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWDDWDDW

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Guangdong Mingtu 1–2 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (3 last)

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1-2Guangdong Mingtu
Guangdong Mingtu1-2Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic3-0Guangdong Mingtu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangdong Mingtu 1541 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1513

	Guangdong Mingtu	Draw	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Our model	39%	34%	27%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangdong Mingtu	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +3’	2.20	2.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong Mingtu 1–0–2 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	1-2 HT 1-1	Guangdong Mingtu
27/09/25 China Division 2	Guangdong Mingtu	1-2 HT 1-1	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
22/08/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	3-0 HT 1-0	Guangdong Mingtu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	29	10	10	9	35	31	40
2	Guangdong Mingtu	29	8	15	6	29	24	39
3	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	29	9	12	8	31	28	39
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	29	7	16	6	21	22	37
5	Changchun Xidu	29	6	15	8	21	31	33
6	Guangzhou Dandelion	29	7	10	12	28	35	31
7	Wenzhou FC	29	5	12	12	18	33	27
8	Shanghai Segenda	29	3	13	13	27	46	22

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangdong Mingtu

DWLWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
25/10	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
17/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
11/10	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
06/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
18/09	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
16/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
09/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

DWDWWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	3-1	3-1	7	1	W
24/10	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
17/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
11/10	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
06/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	0-2	10	6	L
18/09	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
13/09	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
22/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	2-0	2-2	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangdong Mingtu vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong Mingtu win (40%). Probabilities: Guangdong Mingtu 40%, draw 32%, Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 27%.

How many goals are expected in Guangdong Mingtu vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

The model expects 1.9 goals (Guangdong Mingtu 1.07 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0.83), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangdong Mingtu vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.