Football · China Division 2 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Changchun Xidu vs Wenzhou FC

Team pages: Changchun Xidu · Wenzhou FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

Changchun Xidu1.18

Wenzhou FC0.78

1X2

45% 32% 24%

Changchun Xidu Draw Wenzhou FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Xidu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDWWDD

Wenzhou FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDLLDL

Head-to-head

Changchun Xidu 1–0 Wenzhou FC (1 last)

Wenzhou FC1-2Changchun Xidu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Xidu 1538 · Wenzhou FC 1467

	Changchun Xidu	Draw	Wenzhou FC
Our model	44%	33%	23%
Market	45%	31%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changchun Xidu (rating 1538 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Xidu	Wenzhou FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.90

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +3’	2.00	2.90	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Xidu 1–0–0 Wenzhou FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/10/26 China Division 2	Wenzhou FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Changchun Xidu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	29	10	10	9	35	31	40
2	Guangdong Mingtu	29	8	15	6	29	24	39
3	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	29	9	12	8	31	28	39
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	29	7	16	6	21	22	37
5	Changchun Xidu	29	6	15	8	21	31	33
6	Guangzhou Dandelion	29	7	10	12	28	35	31
7	Wenzhou FC	29	5	12	12	18	33	27
8	Shanghai Segenda	29	3	13	13	27	46	22

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Xidu

LDWWDDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
25/10	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
18/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/10	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/09	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
22/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L

Wenzhou FC

DDWWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
24/10	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
18/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-4	3	2	L
12/10	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
06/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
18/09	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
13/09	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
16/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
09/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Xidu vs Wenzhou FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Xidu win (45%). Probabilities: Changchun Xidu 45%, draw 32%, Wenzhou FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Xidu vs Wenzhou FC?

The model expects 1.95 goals (Changchun Xidu 1.18 · Wenzhou FC 0.78), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Xidu vs Wenzhou FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.