Football · China Division 2 · 18/10, 13:35

Prediction: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Nantong Haimen Codion

Team pages: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves · Nantong Haimen Codion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves1.09

Nantong Haimen Codion1.17

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves Draw Nantong Haimen Codion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLDDLD

Nantong Haimen Codion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDDWWD

Head-to-head

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1–2–0 Nantong Haimen Codion (3 last)

Nantong Haimen Codion1-1Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Nantong Haimen Codion0-0Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves2-1Nantong Haimen Codion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1483 · Nantong Haimen Codion 1550

	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Draw	Nantong Haimen Codion
Our model	32%	31%	36%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Haimen Codion (rating 1483 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Nantong Haimen Codion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +7’	2.70	3.10	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1–2–0 Nantong Haimen Codion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 China Division 2	Nantong Haimen Codion	1-1 HT 1-0	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
04/10/25 China Division 2	Nantong Haimen Codion	0-0 HT 0-0	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
31/08/25 China Division 2	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	2-1 HT 1-0	Nantong Haimen Codion

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	9	10	7	29	24	37
2	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	7	13	6	31	25	34
3	Xiamen Feilu	26	8	9	9	32	31	33
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	26	7	9	10	22	38	30
5	Qingdao Red Lions	26	6	11	9	25	25	29
6	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	26	5	10	11	21	29	25
7	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	26	5	9	12	23	29	24
8	Beijing Institute	26	5	8	13	25	46	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Nantong Haimen Codion
Qingdao Red Lions	1-1 D	1-1 D
Beijing Institute	0-2 L	2-1 W
Tai'an Tiankuang	1-1 D	2-1 W
Xiamen Feilu	5-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Haimen Codion (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

DLWWDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
06/10	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
19/09	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/09	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
23/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
16/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
08/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	3-2	1	4	W
02/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	2-1	5-1	5	2	W
27/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Nantong Haimen Codion

LWWWDDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
07/10	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
18/09	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	0	3	W
12/09	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
22/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
19/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
15/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
26/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Nantong Haimen Codion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nantong Haimen Codion win (37%). Probabilities: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 33%, draw 30%, Nantong Haimen Codion 37%.

How many goals are expected in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Nantong Haimen Codion?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1.09 · Nantong Haimen Codion 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Nantong Haimen Codion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.