Football · China Division 2 · 31/10, 07:30

Prediction: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Beijing Institute

Team pages: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves · Beijing Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves1.57

Beijing Institute1.24

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves Draw Beijing Institute

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Beijing Institute 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0–1 Beijing Institute (1 last)

Beijing Institute2-0Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1466 · Beijing Institute 1518

	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Draw	Beijing Institute
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Institute (rating 1466 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Beijing Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	1.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.84 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
06:48 +19’	2.00	3.20	3.30
07:57 +11’	2.05▲	3.30▲	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:41 +27’	1.92	3.15	3.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0–0–1 Beijing Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/26 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	2-0 HT 2-0	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nantong Haimen Codion	28	9	13	6	37	26	40
2	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	32	27	40
3	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	37	33	37
4	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	26	28	32
5	Ganzhou Ruishi	28	7	10	11	23	40	31
6	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	28	6	9	13	25	32	27
7	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	28	5	10	13	23	35	25
8	Beijing Institute	28	5	10	13	28	49	25

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-3	1	2	L
18/10	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	1-3	1-3	7	6	L
13/10	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
06/10	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
19/09	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/09	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
23/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
16/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
08/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	3-2	1	4	W
02/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	2-1	5-1	5	2	W

Beijing Institute

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
11/10	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
19/09	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
12/09	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
15/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
08/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
05/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Beijing Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves win (44%). Probabilities: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 44%, draw 27%, Beijing Institute 29%.

How many goals are expected in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Beijing Institute?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1.57 · Beijing Institute 1.24), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Beijing Institute?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.