Football · China Division 2 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Beijing Institute vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Team pages: Beijing Institute · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Beijing Institute1.1

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves1.55

1X2

26% 27% 47%

Beijing Institute Draw Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Institute 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDDDD

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Beijing Institute 1–1–1 Wuhan Three Towns Reserves (3 last)

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves1-1Beijing Institute
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves2-0Beijing Institute
Beijing Institute1-0Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Institute 1526 · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1473

	Beijing Institute	Draw	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves
Our model	26%	28%	46%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Institute (rating 1526 vs 1473).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beijing Institute	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	2.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +10’	3.40	3.40	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Institute 1–1–1 Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 China Division 2	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	Beijing Institute
04/10/25 China Division 2	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	2-0 HT 2-0	Beijing Institute
31/08/25 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	1-0 HT 1-0	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nantong Haimen Codion	29	10	13	6	38	26	43
2	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	32	27	40
3	Xiamen Feilu	29	9	10	10	37	34	37
4	Qingdao Red Lions	29	8	11	10	27	28	35
5	Ganzhou Ruishi	28	7	10	11	23	40	31
6	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	29	6	9	14	25	33	27
7	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	29	5	11	13	24	36	26
8	Beijing Institute	29	5	11	13	29	50	26

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beijing Institute

WDWWLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
24/10	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
11/10	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
19/09	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
12/09	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
15/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
08/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	4	W

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

LLWDLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
25/10	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
17/10	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
11/10	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/10	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/09	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
12/09	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
16/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
08/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Institute vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wuhan Three Towns Reserves win (47%). Probabilities: Beijing Institute 26%, draw 27%, Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 47%.

How many goals are expected in Beijing Institute vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Beijing Institute 1.1 · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1.55), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Beijing Institute vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.