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Football · El Salvador Apertura · 24/09, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco

Team pages: Alianza FC · Fuerte San Francisco

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Alianza FC1.77
Fuerte San Francisco0.8
1X2
60% 23% 16%
Alianza FC Draw Fuerte San Francisco
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)
WDWLDLDWDW
Fuerte San Francisco 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
DLDDWLLLLL
Head-to-head
Alianza FC 6–0 Fuerte San Francisco (6 last)
  • Fuerte San Francisco0-1Alianza FC
  • Alianza FC3-2Fuerte San Francisco
  • Fuerte San Francisco1-3Alianza FC
  • Alianza FC1-0Fuerte San Francisco
  • Alianza FC2-0Fuerte San Francisco
  • Fuerte San Francisco0-1Alianza FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1540 · Fuerte San Francisco 1408
Alianza FCDrawFuerte San Francisco
Our model60%25%15%
Market61%22%17%
Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1540 vs 1408).
  • H2H favours Alianza FC: 6-0-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Alianza FCFuerte San Francisco
Goals for / against (FT)1.5 / 1.10.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.50.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.6 / 5.91.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.8 / 0.54.4 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 6–0–0 Fuerte San Francisco

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DateHomeScoreAway
01/05/26
El Salvador Clausura
Fuerte San Francisco0-1
HT 0-1
Alianza FC
08/03/26
El Salvador Clausura
Alianza FC3-2
HT 1-0
Fuerte San Francisco
16/11/25
El Salvador Apertura
Fuerte San Francisco1-3
HT 0-1
Alianza FC
14/09/25
El Salvador Clausura
Alianza FC1-0
HT 0-0
Fuerte San Francisco
19/05/25
El Salvador Clausura
Alianza FC2-0
HT 0-0
Fuerte San Francisco
15/05/25
El Salvador Clausura
Fuerte San Francisco0-1
HT 0-0
Alianza FC

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 CD FAS 10622 18920
2 Internacional Santa Tecla 11551 16820
3 AD Isidro Metapan 11623 151020
4 CD Luis Angel Firpo 9522 16717
5 Municipal Limeno 11524 161217
6 CD Aguila 11353 161414
7 Alianza FC 8332 121112
8 Atlético Balboa 11335 121612
8 CD Platense Zacatecoluca 11335 121612
10 CD INCA Aruba 11326 82011
11 CD Cacahuatique 10145 11187
12 Fuerte San Francisco 10136 6176

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAlianza FCFuerte San Francisco
Municipal Limeno 3-2 W 0-2 L
CD Aguila 2-2 D 1-4 L
Atlético Balboa 2-0 W 0-1 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca 2-2 D 1-1 D
AD Isidro Metapan 0-2 L 1-0 W
CD Cacahuatique 0-0 D 0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla 0-2 L 2-2 D
CD INCA Aruba 3-1 W 1-2 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo 0-0 D 0-4 L
Record vs common 3 W 4 D 2 L 1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

WDWLDLDWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/09 Municipal Limeno
El Salvador Apertura
 1-1 3-2 32 W
06/09 CD Aguila
El Salvador Apertura
 1-1 2-2 59 D
30/08 Atlético Balboa
El Salvador Apertura
 0-0 2-0 114 W
26/08 CD Platense Zacatecoluca
El Salvador Apertura
 1-1 2-2 64 D
23/08 AD Isidro Metapan
El Salvador Apertura
 0-1 0-2 65 L
16/08 CD Cacahuatique
El Salvador Apertura
 0-0 0-0 54 D
09/08 Internacional Santa Tecla
El Salvador Apertura
 0-1 0-2 40 L
26/07 CD INCA Aruba
El Salvador Apertura
 1-0 3-1 55 W
21/12 CD Luis Angel Firpo
El Salvador Apertura
 0-0 0-0 95 D
14/12 CD Cacahuatique
El Salvador Apertura
 1-0 3-0 55 W

Fuerte San Francisco

DLDDWLLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 CD INCA Aruba
El Salvador Apertura
 1-0 1-2 49 L
13/09 Municipal Limeno
El Salvador Apertura
 0-1 0-2 23 L
05/09 CD FAS
El Salvador Apertura
 0-0 0-1 11 L
30/08 CD Aguila
El Salvador Apertura
 1-1 1-4 26 L
23/08 Atlético Balboa
El Salvador Apertura
 0-0 0-1 47 L
15/08 AD Isidro Metapan
El Salvador Apertura
 1-0 1-0 80 W
09/08 CD Cacahuatique
El Salvador Apertura
 0-0 0-0 57 D
01/08 Internacional Santa Tecla
El Salvador Apertura
 2-1 2-2 410 D
30/07 CD Luis Angel Firpo
El Salvador Apertura
 0-2 0-4 12 L
26/07 CD Platense Zacatecoluca
El Salvador Apertura
 1-0 1-1 22 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (60%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 60%, draw 23%, Fuerte San Francisco 16%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Alianza FC 1.77 · Fuerte San Francisco 0.8), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.