Football · El Salvador Apertura · 01/10, 23:30

Prediction: Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Luis Angel Firpo

Team pages: Fuerte San Francisco · CD Luis Angel Firpo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Fuerte San Francisco0.72

CD Luis Angel Firpo1.49

1X2

18% 26% 56%

Fuerte San Francisco Draw CD Luis Angel Firpo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerte San Francisco 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLLDD

CD Luis Angel Firpo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Fuerte San Francisco 0–1–5 CD Luis Angel Firpo (6 last)

CD Luis Angel Firpo4-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-2CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Luis Angel Firpo1-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco1-4CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Luis Angel Firpo3-0Fuerte San Francisco
CD Luis Angel Firpo1-1Fuerte San Francisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerte San Francisco 1414 · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1556

	Fuerte San Francisco	Draw	CD Luis Angel Firpo
Our model	17%	29%	55%
Market	19%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Luis Angel Firpo (rating 1414 vs 1556).
H2H favours CD Luis Angel Firpo: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuerte San Francisco	CD Luis Angel Firpo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.60

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +7’	4.75	3.60	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerte San Francisco 0–1–5 CD Luis Angel Firpo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/07/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	4-0 HT 2-0	Fuerte San Francisco
05/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Luis Angel Firpo
08/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	1-0 HT 1-0	Fuerte San Francisco
19/10/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	1-4 HT 1-3	CD Luis Angel Firpo
17/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	3-0 HT 2-0	Fuerte San Francisco
11/05/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	1-1 HT 0-1	Fuerte San Francisco

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
2	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	11	6	3	2	18	7	21
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	12	5	6	1	17	9	21
5	Municipal Limeno	12	5	2	5	17	15	17
6	Alianza FC	10	3	5	2	15	14	14
7	CD Aguila	12	3	5	4	16	16	14
8	Atlético Balboa	12	3	4	5	13	17	13
9	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
10	CD INCA Aruba	12	3	3	6	9	21	12
11	CD Cacahuatique	12	1	5	6	11	20	8
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8	19	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerte San Francisco	CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	0-0 D	1-0 W
CD INCA Aruba	1-2 L	0-0 D
Municipal Limeno	0-2 L	2-0 W
CD FAS	0-1 L	1-3 L
CD Aguila	1-4 L	2-0 W
Atlético Balboa	0-1 L	3-1 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Luis Angel Firpo (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuerte San Francisco

DDWLLLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
19/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
05/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
30/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
23/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
09/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-2	4	10	D

CD Luis Angel Firpo

DWWDWLWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	3	12	W
24/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
21/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
07/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
31/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-3	1-3	12	5	L
24/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
17/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
09/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
30/07	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
26/07	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Luis Angel Firpo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Luis Angel Firpo win (56%). Probabilities: Fuerte San Francisco 18%, draw 26%, CD Luis Angel Firpo 56%.

How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Luis Angel Firpo?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Fuerte San Francisco 0.72 · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Luis Angel Firpo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.