Football · El Salvador Apertura · 30/09, 23:30

Prediction: Alianza FC vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Team pages: Alianza FC · CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Alianza FC1.74

CD Platense Zacatecoluca0.99

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Alianza FC Draw CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWDWDD

CD Platense Zacatecoluca 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Alianza FC 3–3–0 CD Platense Zacatecoluca (6 last)

CD Platense Zacatecoluca2-2Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-3CD Platense Zacatecoluca
CD Platense Zacatecoluca0-2Alianza FC
Alianza FC2-1CD Platense Zacatecoluca
CD Platense Zacatecoluca1-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC1-0CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1526 · CD Platense Zacatecoluca 1446

	Alianza FC	Draw	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1526 vs 1446).
H2H favours Alianza FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	4.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +42’	1.61	3.60	4.50
15:20 +2’	1.65▲	3.50▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +76’	1.92	3.25	3.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 3–3–0 CD Platense Zacatecoluca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-2 HT 1-1	Alianza FC
29/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	3-3 HT 2-2	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
01/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	0-2 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
06/10/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
03/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-1 HT 1-1	Alianza FC
27/03/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Platense Zacatecoluca

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
2	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	11	6	3	2	18	7	21
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	12	5	6	1	17	9	21
5	Municipal Limeno	12	5	2	5	17	15	17
6	Alianza FC	10	3	5	2	15	14	14
7	CD Aguila	12	3	5	4	16	16	14
8	Atlético Balboa	12	3	4	5	13	17	13
9	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
10	CD INCA Aruba	12	3	3	6	9	21	12
11	CD Cacahuatique	12	1	5	6	11	20	8
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8	19	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	CD Platense Zacatecoluca
CD INCA Aruba	1-1 D	2-0 W
Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 D	0-0 D
CD Aguila	2-2 D	0-1 L
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	1-3 L
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	1-2 L
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	2-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
30/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
26/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
26/07	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	5	5	W

CD Platense Zacatecoluca

WWLDLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
09/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
05/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	2-1	4	10	W
29/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-3	3	8	L
26/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
24/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	0	1	L
17/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
08/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (54%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 54%, draw 26%, CD Platense Zacatecoluca 20%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Alianza FC 1.74 · CD Platense Zacatecoluca 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs CD Platense Zacatecoluca?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.