Football · El Salvador Apertura · 04/10, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs CD Luis Angel Firpo

Team pages: Alianza FC · CD Luis Angel Firpo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Alianza FC1.13

CD Luis Angel Firpo1.2

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Alianza FC Draw CD Luis Angel Firpo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDWDDW

CD Luis Angel Firpo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Alianza FC 1–3–2 CD Luis Angel Firpo (6 last)

CD Luis Angel Firpo2-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC2-3CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Luis Angel Firpo0-0Alianza FC
CD Luis Angel Firpo0-5Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-3CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Luis Angel Firpo0-0Alianza FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1483 · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1567

	Alianza FC	Draw	CD Luis Angel Firpo
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Luis Angel Firpo (rating 1483 vs 1567).
H2H favours CD Luis Angel Firpo: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	CD Luis Angel Firpo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +18’	2.60	3.20	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 1–3–2 CD Luis Angel Firpo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	2-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
25/01/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-3 HT 0-0	CD Luis Angel Firpo
21/12/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
28/09/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-5 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
27/07/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	3-3 HT 2-1	CD Luis Angel Firpo
10/04/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
2	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	11	6	3	2	18	7	21
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	13	5	6	2	18	11	21
5	Alianza FC	11	4	5	2	17	15	17
5	Municipal Limeno	12	5	2	5	17	15	17
7	CD Aguila	13	4	5	4	18	17	17
8	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
9	Atlético Balboa	13	3	4	6	13	19	13
10	CD INCA Aruba	12	3	3	6	9	21	12
11	CD Cacahuatique	13	2	5	6	13	20	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8	19	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	CD Luis Angel Firpo
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-1 W	1-0 W
CD INCA Aruba	1-1 D	0-0 D
Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 D	4-0 W
Municipal Limeno	3-2 W	2-0 W
CD Aguila	2-2 D	2-0 W
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	3-1 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Luis Angel Firpo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

LDLDWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
30/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
26/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	0	L

CD Luis Angel Firpo

DWWDWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	3	12	W
24/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
21/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
07/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
31/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-3	1-3	12	5	L
24/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
17/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
09/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
30/07	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
26/07	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs CD Luis Angel Firpo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Luis Angel Firpo win (37%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 34%, draw 29%, CD Luis Angel Firpo 37%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs CD Luis Angel Firpo?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Alianza FC 1.13 · CD Luis Angel Firpo 1.2), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs CD Luis Angel Firpo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.