Football · El Salvador Apertura · 04/10, 01:00

Prediction: AD Isidro Metapan vs Atlético Balboa

Team pages: AD Isidro Metapan · Atlético Balboa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

AD Isidro Metapan1.62

Atlético Balboa0.69

1X2

60% 25% 15%

AD Isidro Metapan Draw Atlético Balboa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Isidro Metapan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLWDW

Atlético Balboa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

AD Isidro Metapan 0–1–0 Atlético Balboa (1 last)

Atlético Balboa0-0AD Isidro Metapan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Isidro Metapan 1518 · Atlético Balboa 1466

	AD Isidro Metapan	Draw	Atlético Balboa
Our model	59%	27%	15%
Market	60%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Isidro Metapan (rating 1518 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Isidro Metapan	Atlético Balboa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.6	1 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.80

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +19’	1.48	3.80	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Isidro Metapan 0–1–0 Atlético Balboa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Atlético Balboa	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Isidro Metapan

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
2	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	11	6	3	2	18	7	21
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	13	5	6	2	18	11	21
5	Alianza FC	11	4	5	2	17	15	17
5	Municipal Limeno	12	5	2	5	17	15	17
7	CD Aguila	13	4	5	4	18	17	17
8	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
9	Atlético Balboa	13	3	4	6	13	19	13
10	CD INCA Aruba	12	3	3	6	9	21	12
11	CD Cacahuatique	13	2	5	6	13	20	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8	19	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Isidro Metapan	Atlético Balboa
CD Cacahuatique	2-0 W	0-2 L
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-0 D	1-1 D
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-1 W	3-1 W
CD INCA Aruba	0-1 L	0-1 L
Municipal Limeno	1-3 L	0-2 L
Alianza FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 L	1-0 W
CD Aguila	2-1 W	4-2 W
CD FAS	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Isidro Metapan

WDWLWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
09/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
06/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
29/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	13	3	L
23/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
15/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	8	0	L
08/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/07	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	2-0	2-0	5	8	W

Atlético Balboa

DWWLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
27/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
12/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
30/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
23/08	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-2	4-2	1	8	W
10/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Isidro Metapan vs Atlético Balboa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Isidro Metapan win (60%). Probabilities: AD Isidro Metapan 60%, draw 25%, Atlético Balboa 15%.

How many goals are expected in AD Isidro Metapan vs Atlético Balboa?

The model expects 2.31 goals (AD Isidro Metapan 1.62 · Atlético Balboa 0.69), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Isidro Metapan vs Atlético Balboa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.