Football · El Salvador Apertura · 01/10, 02:00

Prediction: CD INCA Aruba vs Municipal Limeno

Team pages: CD INCA Aruba · Municipal Limeno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

CD INCA Aruba1

Municipal Limeno1.49

1X2

24% 28% 48%

CD INCA Aruba Draw Municipal Limeno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD INCA Aruba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Municipal Limeno 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CD INCA Aruba 0–1 Municipal Limeno (1 last)

Municipal Limeno2-0CD INCA Aruba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD INCA Aruba 1467 · Municipal Limeno 1516

	CD INCA Aruba	Draw	Municipal Limeno
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Municipal Limeno (rating 1467 vs 1516).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD INCA Aruba	Municipal Limeno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.30

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +4’	3.60	3.30	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD INCA Aruba 0–0–1 Municipal Limeno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/07/26 El Salvador Apertura	Municipal Limeno	2-0 HT 0-0	CD INCA Aruba

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
2	AD Isidro Metapan	12	7	2	3	17	10	23
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	11	6	3	2	18	7	21
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	12	5	6	1	17	9	21
5	Municipal Limeno	12	5	2	5	17	15	17
6	Alianza FC	10	3	5	2	15	14	14
7	CD Aguila	12	3	5	4	16	16	14
8	Atlético Balboa	12	3	4	5	13	17	13
9	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	12	3	4	5	12	16	13
10	CD INCA Aruba	12	3	3	6	9	21	12
11	CD Cacahuatique	12	1	5	6	11	20	8
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8	19	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD INCA Aruba	Municipal Limeno
Alianza FC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	2-0 W
CD Aguila	1-3 L	0-0 D
Atlético Balboa	1-0 W	2-0 W
AD Isidro Metapan	1-0 W	3-1 W
CD Cacahuatique	1-1 D	3-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-4 L	0-1 L
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 D	0-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	0-2 L	1-1 D
CD FAS	0-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Municipal Limeno (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD INCA Aruba

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
22/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-4	4	1	L
17/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
08/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	10	L
03/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	3	2	L

Municipal Limeno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
10/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
06/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
29/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
09/08	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
02/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD INCA Aruba vs Municipal Limeno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Municipal Limeno win (48%). Probabilities: CD INCA Aruba 24%, draw 28%, Municipal Limeno 48%.

How many goals are expected in CD INCA Aruba vs Municipal Limeno?

The model expects 2.49 goals (CD INCA Aruba 1 · Municipal Limeno 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD INCA Aruba vs Municipal Limeno?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.