Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 10/09, 21:30

Prediction: Carapegua vs Club Dr Benjamin Aceval

Team pages: Carapegua · Club Dr Benjamin Aceval

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Carapegua1.09

Club Dr Benjamin Aceval1.6

1X2

25% 26% 48%

Carapegua Draw Club Dr Benjamin Aceval

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Club Dr Benjamin Aceval 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carapegua 0–1 Club Dr Benjamin Aceval (1 last)

Club Dr Benjamin Aceval2-0Carapegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1475 · Club Dr Benjamin Aceval 1509

	Carapegua	Draw	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +10’	3.50	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 0–0–1 Club Dr Benjamin Aceval

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	2-0 HT 1-0	Carapegua

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	23	14	5	4	46	27	47
2	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	22	13	5	4	32	20	44
3	Deportivo Santaní	22	13	3	6	38	22	42
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	22	11	6	5	36	24	39
5	Sol de America	23	7	13	3	27	19	34
6	Resistencia FC	23	8	8	7	25	26	32
7	Paraguari AC	23	8	5	10	28	30	29
8	Club Atlético Tembetary	22	8	5	9	31	34	29
9	Independiente FBC	22	6	10	6	30	31	28
10	Carapegua	22	8	4	10	26	37	28
11	Deportivo Capiata	22	6	9	7	29	31	27
12	Fernando de la Mora	22	6	7	9	23	31	25
13	Guairena FC	23	6	6	11	21	29	24
14	3 de Noviembre	23	4	7	12	27	36	19
15	Tacuary	22	3	10	9	24	36	19
16	Encarnacion FC	22	5	3	14	21	31	18

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-0 W	1-1 D
Encarnacion FC	1-3 L	3-1 W
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	2-3 L
Fernando de la Mora	2-0 W	1-2 L
3 de Noviembre	1-0 W	2-1 W
General Caballero JLM	1-2 L	0-2 L
Guairena FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Resistencia FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Sol de America	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carapegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D

Club Dr Benjamin Aceval

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
31/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
23/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
15/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
09/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
31/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
27/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
18/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
07/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Club Dr Benjamin Aceval?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Dr Benjamin Aceval win (48%). Probabilities: Carapegua 25%, draw 26%, Club Dr Benjamin Aceval 48%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Club Dr Benjamin Aceval?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Carapegua 1.09 · Club Dr Benjamin Aceval 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Club Dr Benjamin Aceval?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.