Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Carapegua vs Tacuary

Team pages: Carapegua · Tacuary

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Carapegua1.49

Tacuary1.06

1X2

46% 27% 26%

Carapegua Draw Tacuary

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Tacuary 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Carapegua 0–2–1 Tacuary (3 last)

Tacuary2-2Carapegua
Carapegua2-2Tacuary
Tacuary2-1Carapegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1521 · Tacuary 1453

	Carapegua	Draw	Tacuary
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carapegua (rating 1521 vs 1453).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Tacuary
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	1.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.95▲	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.90 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.75 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:20 +16’	1.73	3.60	3.90
04:16 +10’	1.90▲	3.50▼	3.30▼
15:09	1.95▲	3.50	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:44 +41’	1.99	3.01	3.16
06:25 +32’	1.78▼	3.26▲	3.52▲
12:00 +18’	1.85▲	3.23▼	3.55▲
15:09	1.88▲	3.17▼	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 0–2–1 Tacuary

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	2-2 HT 2-1	Carapegua
25/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-2 HT 1-2	Tacuary
21/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	2-1 HT 0-1	Carapegua

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	25	15	5	5	51	30	50
2	Deportivo Santaní	25	15	3	7	43	24	48
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	24	14	6	4	35	22	48
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	24	11	6	7	37	29	39
5	Sol de America	25	8	13	4	30	24	37
6	Paraguari AC	25	10	5	10	34	33	35
7	Independiente FBC	24	8	10	6	33	32	34
8	Carapegua	24	10	4	10	30	38	34
9	Resistencia FC	25	8	8	9	27	30	32
10	Fernando de la Mora	25	8	7	10	28	35	31
11	Club Atlético Tembetary	24	8	6	10	33	37	30
12	Deportivo Capiata	24	6	9	9	29	33	27
13	Guairena FC	25	6	7	12	22	33	25
14	3 de Noviembre	25	5	8	12	30	38	23
15	Tacuary	24	3	11	10	26	39	20
16	Encarnacion FC	24	5	4	15	22	33	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Tacuary
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-0 W	1-2 L
Encarnacion FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	0-3 L
Fernando de la Mora	2-0 W	1-1 D
3 de Noviembre	1-0 W	0-1 L
General Caballero JLM	1-2 L	1-4 L
Guairena FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carapegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
10/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W

Tacuary

DDLWLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
09/09	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-3	9	3	L
29/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
23/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
10/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
01/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
25/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
20/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Tacuary?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carapegua win (46%). Probabilities: Carapegua 46%, draw 27%, Tacuary 26%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Tacuary?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Carapegua 1.49 · Tacuary 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Tacuary?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.