Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/09, 03:30
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Deportes Tolima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Independiente Santa Fe1.37
Deportes Tolima1.03
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Deportes Tolima
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Deportes Tolima
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
1–3–2
Deportes Tolima
(6 last)
- Deportes Tolima2-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Deportes Tolima1-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe1-2Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima0-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe0-0Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima0-0Independiente Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1536 · Deportes Tolima 1520
| Independiente Santa Fe | Draw | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 1–3–2 Deportes Tolima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 29/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 26/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Deportes Tolima |
| 19/07/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 01/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Tolima |
| 30/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Llaneros | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 8 | Aguilas Doradas | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 9 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cali | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
| 18 | Junior | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 3 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2 |
| 20 | Alianza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Deportes Tolima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (43%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 43%, draw 30%, Deportes Tolima 27%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.37 · Deportes Tolima 1.03), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.