Football · Colombia Primera A · 20/09, 21:00
Prediction: Fortaleza CEIF vs Junior
Team pages: Fortaleza CEIF · Junior
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Fortaleza CEIF1.16
Junior1.28
1X2
Fortaleza CEIF
Draw
Junior
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Fortaleza CEIF
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Junior
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fortaleza CEIF
2–1–3
Junior
(6 last)
- Junior2-1Fortaleza CEIF
- Fortaleza CEIF1-1Junior
- Junior2-1Fortaleza CEIF
- Junior2-1Fortaleza CEIF
- Fortaleza CEIF2-0Junior
- Junior1-2Fortaleza CEIF
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fortaleza CEIF 1470 · Junior 1461
| Fortaleza CEIF | Draw | Junior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Junior: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fortaleza CEIF | Junior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 6.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza CEIF 2–1–3 Junior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 08/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Fortaleza CEIF | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Junior |
| 17/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 18/08/24 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 11/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Fortaleza CEIF | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Junior |
| 11/09/16 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza CEIF |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Alianza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 8 |
| 16 | Boyaca Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fortaleza CEIF | Junior |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguares de Cordoba | 2-2 D | 3-3 D |
| Independiente Santa Fe | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Once Caldas | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Alianza | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fortaleza CEIF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 27/07 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Junior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 06/09 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 27/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 24/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 11 | D |
| 02/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 09/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fortaleza CEIF vs Junior?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Junior win (38%). Probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF 32%, draw 29%, Junior 38%.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza CEIF vs Junior?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Fortaleza CEIF 1.16 · Junior 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Junior?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.