Football · Colombia Primera A · 21/09, 03:15
Prediction: Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Medellin
Team pages: Llaneros · Atletico Nacional Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Llaneros0.97
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.62
1X2
Llaneros
Draw
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Llaneros
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional Medellin
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llaneros
0–3
Atletico Nacional Medellin
(3 last)
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-0Llaneros
- Llaneros0-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Llaneros
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llaneros 1465 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1632
| Llaneros | Draw | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1465 vs 1632).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 3-0-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llaneros | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 3.7 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.5 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llaneros 0–0–3 Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Llaneros |
| 31/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Llaneros | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 12/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Llaneros |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Independiente Santa Fe | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cali | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pasto | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 16 | Alianza | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 8 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Llaneros | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Aguilas Doradas | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Fortaleza CEIF | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llaneros
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 11 | W |
| 19/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 31/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (52%). Probabilities: Llaneros 22%, draw 26%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 52%.
How many goals are expected in Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Llaneros 0.97 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.62), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.