Football · Colombia Primera A · 21/09, 01:10
Prediction: Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali
Team pages: Deportes Tolima · America de Cali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Deportes Tolima1.35
America de Cali1.13
1X2
Deportes Tolima
Draw
America de Cali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportes Tolima
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
America de Cali
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportes Tolima
2–3–1
America de Cali
(6 last)
- America de Cali1-1Deportes Tolima
- America de Cali0-1Deportes Tolima
- America de Cali1-3Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima1-1America de Cali
- Deportes Tolima0-0America de Cali
- America de Cali4-2Deportes Tolima
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportes Tolima 1494 · America de Cali 1555
| Deportes Tolima | Draw | America de Cali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America de Cali (rating 1494 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportes Tolima | America de Cali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Tolima 2–3–1 America de Cali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 10/08/25 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 13/06/25 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 08/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 1-1 HT 1-0 | America de Cali |
| 24/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 0-0 HT 0-0 | America de Cali |
| 01/12/24 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Deportes Tolima |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Alianza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 8 |
| 16 | Boyaca Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportes Tolima | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Independiente Santa Fe | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Internacional de Bogota | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Alianza | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Junior | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: America de Cali (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
America de Cali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 03/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 7 | D |
| 27/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Tolima win (41%). Probabilities: Deportes Tolima 41%, draw 30%, America de Cali 30%.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Deportes Tolima 1.35 · America de Cali 1.13), with a 58% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.