Football · Colombia Primera A · 20/09, 03:15

Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas

Team pages: Deportivo Pasto · Once Caldas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Deportivo Pasto1.25

Once Caldas1.33

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Deportivo Pasto Draw Once Caldas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pasto 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLD

Once Caldas 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDDWLL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pasto 1–5 Once Caldas (6 last)

Once Caldas4-2Deportivo Pasto
Once Caldas1-0Deportivo Pasto
Once Caldas4-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-2Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto2-1Once Caldas
Once Caldas2-1Deportivo Pasto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1384 · Once Caldas 1516

	Deportivo Pasto	Draw	Once Caldas
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	33%	31%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Once Caldas (rating 1384 vs 1516).
H2H favours Once Caldas: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pasto	Once Caldas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.1	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.9	6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:44	2.80	3.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pasto 1–0–5 Once Caldas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	4-2 HT 2-0	Deportivo Pasto
09/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pasto
02/10/25 Colombia Cup	Once Caldas	4-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Pasto
29/08/25 Colombia Cup	Deportivo Pasto	1-2 HT 0-1	Once Caldas
19/05/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	2-1 HT 1-1	Once Caldas
14/10/24 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	2-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pasto

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Millonarios	10	4	4	2	12	8	16
3	Deportes Tolima	8	5	1	2	12	9	16
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
5	Independiente Medellin	7	5	0	2	13	8	15
6	Atletico Bucaramanga	7	3	4	0	10	6	13
7	Independiente Santa Fe	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
8	Deportivo Cali	8	3	3	2	11	8	12
9	Llaneros	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
10	Internacional de Bogota	9	2	5	2	11	12	11
11	Aguilas Doradas	7	2	4	1	10	10	10
12	Once Caldas	8	2	3	3	12	11	9
13	Cucuta Deportivo	9	2	3	4	9	15	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	9	1	5	3	10	12	8
15	Boyaca Chico	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
17	Deportivo Pereira	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
18	Alianza	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
19	Junior	7	0	3	4	8	13	3
20	Deportivo Pasto	8	0	2	6	7	15	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pasto	Once Caldas
Cucuta Deportivo	2-2 D	5-1 W
Deportivo Cali	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Once Caldas (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Pasto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	5	13	D
01/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
23/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
09/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
05/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
01/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
25/07	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	4	7	L
14/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
10/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Once Caldas

LDWDLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	8	7	L
02/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
10/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
06/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
03/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
27/07	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	7	3	W
14/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	11	12	D
11/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Once Caldas win (37%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 33%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 37%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Deportivo Pasto 1.25 · Once Caldas 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.