Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/09, 02:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Internacional

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Internacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Sao Paulo1.42

Internacional0.93

1X2

48% 29% 24%

Sao Paulo Draw Internacional

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDLWWL

Internacional 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDDLLW

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 2–2–2 Internacional (6 last)

Internacional1-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo3-0Internacional
Internacional1-2Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1-3Internacional
Internacional0-0Sao Paulo
Internacional2-1Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1495 · Internacional 1447

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Internacional
Our model	47%	29%	23%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (rating 1495 vs 1447).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.7	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.97
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.44
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.97 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +1’	1.91	3.30	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +526’	2.02	3.40	3.85
00:22 +58’	1.97▼	3.44▲	3.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 2–2–2 Internacional

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-1 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
04/12/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	3-0 HT 2-0	Internacional
04/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-2 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
22/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-3 HT 1-1	Internacional
14/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
14/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-1 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	27	16	8	3	47	21	56
2	Flamengo	26	16	6	4	51	21	54
3	Athletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41	31	46
4	Fluminense	27	12	9	6	41	35	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	27	12	6	9	39	39	42
7	Atletico Mineiro	26	11	6	9	35	31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	8	9	37	38	38
9	Bragantino	26	10	6	10	32	29	36
10	Santos	26	9	8	9	39	39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	6	11	31	30	33
12	Vitoria	26	9	5	12	25	37	32
13	Corinthians	26	8	8	10	27	27	32
14	Botafogo	26	8	8	10	38	41	32
15	Gremio	26	7	7	12	28	35	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	26	7	7	12	29	41	28
18	Internacional	27	6	10	11	30	35	28
19	Remo	26	5	8	13	30	43	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	8	15	28	52	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Internacional
Palmeiras	0-2 L	0-0 D
Atletico Mineiro	2-0 W	0-0 D
Bragantino	2-1 W	1-3 L
Chapecoense	0-1 L	2-1 W
Flamengo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Athletico Paranaense	1-2 L	0-2 L
Remo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

DLLDLDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D

Internacional

LLLDDDDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-3	2-3	7	9	L
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (48%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 48%, draw 29%, Internacional 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Sao Paulo 1.42 · Internacional 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.