Football · Brazil Serie A · 21/09, 00:30
Prediction: Athletico Paranaense vs EC Bahia
Team pages: Athletico Paranaense · EC Bahia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Athletico Paranaense1.77
EC Bahia1.27
1X2
Athletico Paranaense
Draw
EC Bahia
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Athletico Paranaense
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
EC Bahia
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Athletico Paranaense
2–2–2
EC Bahia
(6 last)
- EC Bahia3-0Athletico Paranaense
- EC Bahia1-1Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense1-3EC Bahia
- EC Bahia1-1Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense2-0EC Bahia
- Athletico Paranaense2-1EC Bahia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Athletico Paranaense 1541 · EC Bahia 1531
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | EC Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Athletico Paranaense | EC Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 3 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletico Paranaense 2–2–2 EC Bahia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 24/11/24 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 11/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 1-3 HT 0-2 | EC Bahia |
| 12/11/23 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 16/07/23 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 2-0 HT 2-0 | EC Bahia |
| 13/07/22 Copa do Brasil | Athletico Paranaense | 2-1 HT 0-1 | EC Bahia |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 22 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 56 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 46 |
| 4 | EC Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 42 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | 40 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | 38 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 35 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | 35 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 30 | 33 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | 32 |
| 16 | Gremio | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 38 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | 28 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | 18 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Athletico Paranaense | EC Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 3-3 D | 0-0 D |
| Botafogo | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Bragantino | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Corinthians | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Internacional | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
EC Bahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 22/07 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Athletico Paranaense vs EC Bahia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletico Paranaense win (47%). Probabilities: Athletico Paranaense 47%, draw 27%, EC Bahia 26%.
How many goals are expected in Athletico Paranaense vs EC Bahia?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Athletico Paranaense 1.77 · EC Bahia 1.27), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Athletico Paranaense vs EC Bahia?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.