Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/09, 21:00
Prediction: Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Team pages: Vitoria · Cruzeiro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Vitoria1.17
Cruzeiro1.36
1X2
Vitoria
Draw
Cruzeiro
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Vitoria
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Cruzeiro
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vitoria
1–2–3
Cruzeiro
(6 last)
- Cruzeiro3-0Vitoria
- Cruzeiro3-1Vitoria
- Vitoria0-0Cruzeiro
- Vitoria2-2Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro3-1Vitoria
- Vitoria3-0Cruzeiro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vitoria 1439 · Cruzeiro 1530
| Vitoria | Draw | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 30% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (rating 1439 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Cruzeiro: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.3 | 2.9 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 1–2–3 Cruzeiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Vitoria |
| 01/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Vitoria |
| 13/06/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 20/08/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 28/04/24 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 14/11/21 Brazil Serie B | Vitoria | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Cruzeiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 22 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 56 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 46 |
| 4 | EC Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 42 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | 40 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | 38 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 35 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | 35 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 30 | 33 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | 32 |
| 16 | Gremio | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 38 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | 28 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Botafogo | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Flamengo | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Vasco da Gama | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 08/09 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 30/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Cruzeiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 23/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruzeiro win (40%). Probabilities: Vitoria 31%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 40%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Vitoria 1.17 · Cruzeiro 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.