Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: Gremio vs Palmeiras

Team pages: Gremio · Palmeiras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Gremio1.26

Palmeiras1.6

1X2

29% 28% 44%

Gremio Draw Palmeiras

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLWLL

Palmeiras 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWDDW

Head-to-head

Gremio 2–1–3 Palmeiras (6 last)

Palmeiras2-1Gremio
Gremio3-2Palmeiras
Palmeiras1-0Gremio
Palmeiras1-0Gremio
Gremio2-2Palmeiras
Gremio1-0Palmeiras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio 1476 · Palmeiras 1571

	Gremio	Draw	Palmeiras
Our model	29%	27%	44%
Market	28%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1476 vs 1571).
H2H favours Palmeiras: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio	Palmeiras
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +5’	3.30	3.30	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 2–1–3 Palmeiras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	2-1 HT 1-0	Gremio
26/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	3-2 HT 1-1	Palmeiras
27/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 1-0	Gremio
09/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 0-0	Gremio
05/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	2-2 HT 1-0	Palmeiras
22/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-0 HT 1-0	Palmeiras

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	27	16	8	3	47	21	56
2	Flamengo	26	16	6	4	51	21	54
3	Athletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41	31	46
4	Fluminense	27	12	9	6	41	35	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	27	12	6	9	39	39	42
7	Atletico Mineiro	26	11	6	9	35	31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	8	9	37	38	38
9	Bragantino	26	10	6	10	32	29	36
10	Santos	26	9	8	9	39	39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	6	11	31	30	33
12	Vitoria	26	9	5	12	25	37	32
13	Corinthians	26	8	8	10	27	27	32
14	Botafogo	26	8	8	10	38	41	32
15	Gremio	26	7	7	12	28	35	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	26	7	7	12	29	41	28
18	Internacional	27	6	10	11	30	35	28
19	Remo	26	5	8	13	30	43	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	8	15	28	52	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio	Palmeiras
Vasco da Gama	1-2 L	4-1 W
Vitoria	0-1 L	4-0 W
Chapecoense	3-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico Mineiro	0-3 L	1-2 L
Sao Paulo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Fluminense	1-1 D	2-3 L
Mirassol	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio

WLLDWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
30/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
08/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
26/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
18/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
30/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
24/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	8	4	W

Palmeiras

WWLWDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
06/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
30/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
09/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
27/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
23/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
31/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Palmeiras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (44%). Probabilities: Gremio 29%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 44%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Palmeiras?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Gremio 1.26 · Palmeiras 1.6), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.