Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Coritiba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Vasco da Gama1.67

Coritiba0.87

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Vasco da Gama Draw Coritiba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLWLW

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWDWWLD

Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 2–3–1 Coritiba (6 last)

Coritiba1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama5-1Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-1Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-1Coritiba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1507 · Coritiba 1481

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Coritiba
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Coritiba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.01
2	4.50 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.45 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +5’	1.80	3.50	4.50
17:19 +2’	1.70▼	3.70▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:37 +94’	1.68	3.87	5.10
12:23 +99’	1.68▲	3.86▼	5.06▼
20:48 +9’	1.66▼	3.91▲	5.12▲
22:24 +30’	1.61▼	4.01▲	5.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 2–3–1 Coritiba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
22/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	5-1 HT 2-0	Coritiba
12/05/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
16/10/21 Brazil Serie B	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 1-0	Coritiba
14/07/21 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	1-1 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
17/01/21 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-1 HT 0-1	Coritiba

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	27	16	8	3	47	21	56
2	Flamengo	26	16	6	4	51	21	54
3	Athletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41	31	46
4	Fluminense	27	12	9	6	41	35	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	27	12	6	9	39	39	42
7	Atletico Mineiro	26	11	6	9	35	31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	8	9	37	38	38
9	Bragantino	26	10	6	10	32	29	36
10	Santos	26	9	8	9	39	39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	6	11	31	30	33
12	Vitoria	26	9	5	12	25	37	32
13	Corinthians	26	8	8	10	27	27	32
14	Botafogo	26	8	8	10	38	41	32
15	Gremio	26	7	7	12	28	35	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	26	7	7	12	29	41	28
18	Internacional	27	6	10	11	30	35	28
19	Remo	26	5	8	13	30	43	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	8	15	28	52	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Coritiba
Cruzeiro	3-1 W	0-1 L
Palmeiras	1-4 L	1-3 L
Mirassol	1-1 D	1-2 L
Bragantino	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasco da Gama

LLLDDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L

Coritiba

LLDLWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	8	8	D
06/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (55%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 55%, draw 26%, Coritiba 19%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Vasco da Gama 1.67 · Coritiba 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.