Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/09, 21:00

Prediction: Corinthians vs Fluminense

Team pages: Corinthians · Fluminense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Corinthians1.33

Fluminense0.97

1X2

44% 31% 26%

Corinthians Draw Fluminense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Corinthians 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLLLL

Fluminense 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWWDWL

Head-to-head

Corinthians 2–2–2 Fluminense (6 last)

Fluminense3-1Corinthians
Fluminense0-1Corinthians
Corinthians0-2Fluminense
Fluminense0-0Corinthians
Corinthians3-0Fluminense
Fluminense3-3Corinthians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corinthians 1464 · Fluminense 1529

	Corinthians	Draw	Fluminense
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1464 vs 1529).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corinthians	Fluminense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.18 ★
2	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.77

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 4.7% Pinnacle margin 3.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +2’	2.15	3.10	3.50
22:51 +3’	2.10▼	3.20▲	3.60▲
05:36 +1’	2.10	3.20	3.80▲
07:29 +1’	2.15▲	3.10▼	3.75▼
15:12 +8’	2.20▲	3.10	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:46 +43’	2.14	3.15	3.78
16:51 +61’	2.17▲	3.13▼	3.73▼
07:01 +56’	2.16▼	3.14▲	3.73
21:00 +51’	2.18▲	3.18▲	3.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 2–2–2 Fluminense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	3-1 HT 2-0	Corinthians
14/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	0-1 HT 0-0	Corinthians
17/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	0-2 HT 0-0	Fluminense
18/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	0-0 HT 0-0	Corinthians
28/04/24 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-0 HT 2-0	Fluminense
20/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	3-3 HT 1-3	Corinthians

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	27	17	6	4	53	22	57
2	Palmeiras	27	16	8	3	47	21	56
3	Athletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41	31	46
4	EC Bahia	27	12	10	5	42	33	46
5	Fluminense	27	12	9	6	41	35	45
6	Cruzeiro	27	12	6	9	39	39	42
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Coritiba	27	10	8	9	37	38	38
9	Bragantino	26	10	6	10	32	29	36
10	Santos	26	9	8	9	39	39	35
11	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
12	Sao Paulo	26	9	6	11	31	30	33
13	Vitoria	27	9	6	12	27	39	33
14	Corinthians	27	8	8	11	28	29	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Gremio	27	7	7	13	30	38	28
17	Vasco da Gama	26	7	7	12	29	41	28
18	Internacional	27	6	10	11	30	35	28
19	Remo	27	5	8	14	31	45	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corinthians	Fluminense
Cruzeiro	1-2 L	1-1 D
Bragantino	2-0 W	1-1 D
Athletico Paranaense	0-0 D	3-3 D
EC Bahia	1-1 D	0-0 D
Remo	3-0 W	2-1 W
Gremio	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Corinthians (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corinthians

WWDDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
07/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
30/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
24/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	14	4	L
17/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
26/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
24/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
30/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	8	6	W

Fluminense

DDDDDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
26/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
18/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
01/06	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Fluminense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (44%). Probabilities: Corinthians 44%, draw 31%, Fluminense 26%.

How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Fluminense?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Corinthians 1.33 · Fluminense 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Fluminense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.