Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: Mirassol vs Botafogo

Team pages: Mirassol · Botafogo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Mirassol1.51

Botafogo1.26

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Mirassol Draw Botafogo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDDLWD

Botafogo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLLDD

Head-to-head

Mirassol 0–2–1 Botafogo (3 last)

Botafogo3-2Mirassol
Mirassol0-0Botafogo
Botafogo3-3Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1474 · Botafogo 1478

	Mirassol	Draw	Botafogo
Our model	42%	28%	31%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Botafogo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +4’	2.25	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 0–2–1 Botafogo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	3-2 HT 2-1	Mirassol
01/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo
18/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	3-3 HT 3-0	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	27	17	6	4	53	22	57
2	Palmeiras	27	16	8	3	47	21	56
3	Athletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41	31	46
4	Fluminense	27	12	9	6	41	35	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	27	12	6	9	39	39	42
7	Atletico Mineiro	26	11	6	9	35	31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	8	9	37	38	38
9	Bragantino	26	10	6	10	32	29	36
10	Santos	26	9	8	9	39	39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	6	11	31	30	33
12	Vitoria	27	9	6	12	27	39	33
13	Corinthians	27	8	8	11	28	29	32
14	Botafogo	26	8	8	10	38	41	32
15	Mirassol	27	7	8	12	31	42	29
16	Gremio	26	7	7	12	28	35	28
17	Vasco da Gama	26	7	7	12	29	41	28
18	Internacional	27	6	10	11	30	35	28
19	Remo	26	5	8	13	30	43	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	8	15	28	52	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mirassol	Botafogo
Vitoria	2-2 D	0-1 L
Flamengo	0-2 L	0-3 L
Palmeiras	1-1 D	0-0 D
Santos	1-1 D	2-1 W
Cruzeiro	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mirassol

WDWLLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W

Botafogo

LWDWDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-3	13	3	L
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
24/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
30/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Botafogo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mirassol win (42%). Probabilities: Mirassol 42%, draw 28%, Botafogo 30%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Botafogo?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Mirassol 1.51 · Botafogo 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Botafogo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.