Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/09, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Chapecoense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Atletico Mineiro2.12

Chapecoense0.82

1X2

66% 21% 12%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Chapecoense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWDWLW

Chapecoense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDWLWL

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 2–2–2 Chapecoense (6 last)

Chapecoense0-4Atletico Mineiro
Chapecoense2-2Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro1-1Chapecoense
Atletico Mineiro0-2Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-2Atletico Mineiro
Chapecoense1-0Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1561 · Chapecoense 1431

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Chapecoense
Our model	66%	21%	12%
Market	66%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1561 vs 1431).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Chapecoense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.42
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.67 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +4’	1.40	4.33	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +36’	1.44	4.55	7.11
16:41 +36’	1.42▼	4.67▲	7.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 2–2–2 Chapecoense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-4 HT 0-3	Atletico Mineiro
07/10/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Mineiro
22/06/21 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-1 HT 1-0	Chapecoense
30/10/19 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	0-2 HT 0-1	Chapecoense
15/07/19 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
06/10/18 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	27	17	6	4	53	22	57
2	Palmeiras	27	16	8	3	47	21	56
3	Athletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41	31	46
4	Fluminense	27	12	9	6	41	35	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	27	12	6	9	39	39	42
7	Atletico Mineiro	26	11	6	9	35	31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	8	9	37	38	38
9	Bragantino	26	10	6	10	32	29	36
10	Santos	26	9	8	9	39	39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	6	11	31	30	33
12	Vitoria	27	9	6	12	27	39	33
13	Corinthians	27	8	8	11	28	29	32
14	Botafogo	26	8	8	10	38	41	32
15	Mirassol	27	7	8	12	31	42	29
16	Gremio	26	7	7	12	28	35	28
17	Vasco da Gama	26	7	7	12	29	41	28
18	Internacional	27	6	10	11	30	35	28
19	Remo	26	5	8	13	30	43	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	8	15	28	52	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Chapecoense
Sao Paulo	0-2 L	1-0 W
Internacional	0-0 D	1-2 L
Gremio	3-0 W	1-3 L
Palmeiras	2-1 W	0-1 L
EC Bahia	1-1 D	3-3 D
Corinthians	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

LWDWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	3	L

Chapecoense

LLLDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
07/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
23/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
23/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
18/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
31/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (66%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 66%, draw 21%, Chapecoense 12%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Atletico Mineiro 2.12 · Chapecoense 0.82), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.