Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Palestino vs Universidad Catolica

Team pages: Palestino · Universidad Catolica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Palestino1.53

Universidad Catolica1.95

1X2

29% 26% 46%

Palestino Draw Universidad Catolica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Palestino 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Universidad Catolica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Palestino 0–3–3 Universidad Catolica (6 last)

Universidad Catolica6-1Palestino
Universidad Catolica2-1Palestino
Palestino1-1Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica1-1Palestino
Universidad Catolica1-1Palestino
Palestino0-2Universidad Catolica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palestino 1534 · Universidad Catolica 1545

	Palestino	Draw	Universidad Catolica
Our model	30%	24%	47%
Market	28%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Catolica: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palestino	Universidad Catolica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:14 +5’	3.40	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:28 +52’	2.99	3.49	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Palestino 0–3–3 Universidad Catolica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	6-1 HT 2-1	Palestino
23/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	2-1 HT 1-0	Palestino
01/06/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Palestino	1-1 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica
05/03/25 Copa Sudamericana	Universidad Catolica	1-1 HT 0-1	Palestino
03/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	1-1 HT 0-0	Palestino
02/03/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Palestino	0-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	21	17	1	3	47	21	52
2	Universidad Catolica	22	12	3	7	47	31	39
3	Universidad de Chile	22	11	6	5	32	19	39
4	Everton de Vina	22	9	6	7	34	24	33
5	Palestino	21	10	3	8	32	29	33
6	Nublense	22	8	8	6	27	28	32
7	Deportes Limache	21	9	3	9	40	34	30
8	Deportes Concepcion	22	9	3	10	24	25	30
9	La Serena	22	7	9	6	34	35	30
10	Coquimbo Unido	21	8	5	8	29	28	29
11	Audax Italiano	22	6	7	9	25	31	25
12	O'Higgins	21	7	3	11	26	34	24
13	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
14	Universidad de Concepcion	21	6	4	11	16	35	22
15	Cobresal	21	6	3	12	31	39	21
16	Union La Calera	21	3	5	13	17	38	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palestino	Universidad Catolica
Cobresal	0-2 L	2-0 W
O'Higgins	1-0 W	3-2 W
Huachipato	5-1 W	3-0 W
Coquimbo Unido	2-1 W	2-1 W
Nublense	0-2 L	1-2 L
Everton de Vina	2-1 W	1-0 W
La Serena	5-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palestino

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
24/08	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
18/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	5-1	4	3	W
10/08	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/07	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
13/06	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
24/05	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
16/05	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	3-0	5-1	2	1	W

Universidad Catolica

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
01/09	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
27/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
08/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	10	4	W
02/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
26/07	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-3	6	2	D
14/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
31/05	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
25/05	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-2	8	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palestino vs Universidad Catolica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica win (46%). Probabilities: Palestino 29%, draw 26%, Universidad Catolica 46%.

How many goals are expected in Palestino vs Universidad Catolica?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Palestino 1.53 · Universidad Catolica 1.95), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Palestino vs Universidad Catolica?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.