Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: La Serena vs Universidad de Chile
Team pages: La Serena · Universidad de Chile
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.36Total
La Serena1.33
Universidad de Chile2.03
1X2
La Serena
Draw
Universidad de Chile
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
La Serena
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Universidad de Chile
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
La Serena
0–2–4
Universidad de Chile
(6 last)
- La Serena0-5Universidad de Chile
- Universidad de Chile4-0La Serena
- Universidad de Chile2-2La Serena
- La Serena1-1Universidad de Chile
- Universidad de Chile3-1La Serena
- La Serena1-2Universidad de Chile
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · La Serena 1473 · Universidad de Chile 1574
| La Serena | Draw | Universidad de Chile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1473 vs 1574).
- H2H favours Universidad de Chile: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| La Serena | Universidad de Chile | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.5 | 2.8 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · La Serena 0–2–4 Universidad de Chile
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | La Serena | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Universidad de Chile |
| 06/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Chile | 4-0 HT 0-0 | La Serena |
| 20/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Universidad de Chile | 2-2 HT 1-2 | La Serena |
| 28/09/25 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Chile |
| 18/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Chile | 3-1 HT 2-0 | La Serena |
| 09/10/22 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Chile |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 53 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 19 | 39 |
| 4 | Palestino | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 30 | 36 |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 24 | 33 |
| 6 | Nublense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 28 | 32 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 30 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 25 | 30 |
| 9 | La Serena | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 34 | 35 | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 28 | 29 |
| 11 | O'Higgins | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 35 | 27 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 31 | 25 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 25 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 22 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 39 | 21 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 40 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | La Serena | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Coquimbo Unido | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| O'Higgins | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Audax Italiano | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Colo Colo | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Palestino | 1-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 01/09 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
Universidad de Chile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 15 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad de Chile win (52%). Probabilities: La Serena 24%, draw 24%, Universidad de Chile 52%.
How many goals are expected in La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
The model expects 3.36 goals (La Serena 1.33 · Universidad de Chile 2.03), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in La Serena vs Universidad de Chile?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.