Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 21/09, 02:30
Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs CA Tigre
Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · CA Tigre
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.76Total
Velez Sarsfield1.03
CA Tigre0.73
1X2
Velez Sarsfield
Draw
CA Tigre
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Velez Sarsfield
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
CA Tigre
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Velez Sarsfield
2–3–1
CA Tigre
(6 last)
- CA Tigre1-1Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield2-1CA Tigre
- CA Tigre3-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-0CA Tigre
- Velez Sarsfield2-2CA Tigre
- CA Tigre0-0Velez Sarsfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1535 · CA Tigre 1475
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | CA Tigre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| Market | 42% | 33% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.76 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Velez Sarsfield (rating 1535 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Velez Sarsfield: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Velez Sarsfield | CA Tigre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/44/11% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.6 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 2–3–1 CA Tigre
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 15/07/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 2-1 HT 2-0 | CA Tigre |
| 23/01/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 08/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CA Tigre |
| 27/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 2-2 HT 2-0 | CA Tigre |
| 30/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Gimnasia LP | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 3 | Huracan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Sarmiento | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 5 | Rosario Central | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Independiente Rivadavia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| 7 | Belgrano | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Atlético Tucumán | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | River Plate | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 10 | CA Tigre | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Barracas Central | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Banfield | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 9 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 6 |
| 15 | CA Aldosivi | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Velez Sarsfield | CA Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Gimnasia LP | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Tigre (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
CA Tigre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 01/09 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 25/07 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs CA Tigre?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (41%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 41%, draw 34%, CA Tigre 25%.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs CA Tigre?
The model expects 1.76 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.03 · CA Tigre 0.73), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs CA Tigre?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.