Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 20/09, 19:45
Prediction: San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
Team pages: San Lorenzo · Boca Juniors
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.81Total
San Lorenzo0.69
Boca Juniors1.12
1X2
San Lorenzo
Draw
Boca Juniors
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
San Lorenzo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Boca Juniors
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Lorenzo
2–2–2
Boca Juniors
(6 last)
- Boca Juniors1-1San Lorenzo
- Boca Juniors3-2San Lorenzo
- Boca Juniors2-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo1-1Boca Juniors
- San Lorenzo1-0Boca Juniors
- San Lorenzo2-1Boca Juniors
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Lorenzo 1489 · Boca Juniors 1561
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 34% | 45% |
| Market | 22% | 31% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1489 vs 1561).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.2 | 4.2 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo 2–2–2 Boca Juniors
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-1 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 18/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 3-2 HT 0-1 | San Lorenzo |
| 30/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-1 HT 1-1 | San Lorenzo |
| 08/11/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 12/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 09/07/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Boca Juniors |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | CA Independiente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Newell's | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Platense | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 14 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Lorenzo | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Central Cordoba | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Lanus | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/07 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/07 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 27/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boca Juniors win (45%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo 22%, draw 33%, Boca Juniors 45%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
The model expects 1.81 goals (San Lorenzo 0.69 · Boca Juniors 1.12), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.