Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 19/09, 21:45

Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs CA Independiente

Team pages: Union Santa Fe · CA Independiente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Union Santa Fe1.59

CA Independiente1.24

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Union Santa Fe Draw CA Independiente

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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CA Independiente 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe 1–1–4 CA Independiente (6 last)

Union Santa Fe0-2CA Independiente
CA Independiente4-4Union Santa Fe
CA Independiente3-0Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe3-0CA Independiente
Union Santa Fe0-1CA Independiente
CA Independiente1-0Union Santa Fe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1507 · CA Independiente 1502

	Union Santa Fe	Draw	CA Independiente
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	42%	31%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CA Independiente: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe	CA Independiente
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +17’	2.20	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 1–1–4 CA Independiente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Cup	Union Santa Fe	0-2 HT 0-2	CA Independiente
10/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	CA Independiente	4-4 HT 1-3	Union Santa Fe
06/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	CA Independiente	3-0 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe
24/06/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	3-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente
20/09/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Independiente
26/10/21 Argentina Liga Profesional	CA Independiente	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Santa Fe

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Velez Sarsfield	9	4	5	0	12	7	17
2	Defensa y Justicia	9	5	2	2	11	9	17
3	Gimnasia Mendoza	9	5	1	3	14	9	16
4	Instituto AC Cordoba	8	5	1	2	8	5	16
5	Boca Juniors	9	3	5	1	12	11	14
6	Union Santa Fe	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
7	Newell's	9	3	4	2	10	8	13
8	CA Independiente	8	4	1	3	7	6	13
9	Estudiantes LP	9	3	1	5	9	9	10
10	Lanus	8	3	1	4	8	8	10
11	San Lorenzo	8	3	1	4	3	5	10
12	Deportivo Riestra	8	2	3	3	8	7	9
13	Platense	9	2	3	4	9	14	9
14	CA Talleres de Córdoba	9	2	2	5	10	14	8
15	Central Cordoba	9	2	1	6	5	11	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Santa Fe	CA Independiente
San Lorenzo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Central Cordoba	1-2 L	1-0 W
Lanus	2-1 W	3-1 W
Gimnasia Mendoza	0-2 L	0-3 L
Platense	2-2 D	0-1 L
Independiente Rivadavia	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Union Santa Fe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-2	2	7	W
29/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	4-1	2	3	W
21/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	8	6	L
07/08	Lanus TEST Fixtures	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
01/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
25/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

CA Independiente

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
31/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
22/08	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
17/08	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
09/08	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	13	4	L
04/08	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
31/07	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
26/07	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
10/05	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
02/05	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs CA Independiente?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Santa Fe win (43%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 43%, draw 29%, CA Independiente 28%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs CA Independiente?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.59 · CA Independiente 1.24), with a 61% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs CA Independiente?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.