Prediction: Nice vs Lille
- Lille0-0Nice
- Nice2-0Lille
- Lille2-1Nice
- Nice2-2Lille
- Lille2-2Nice
- Nice1-1Lille
| Nice | Draw | Lille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 31% | 46% |
| Market | 25% | 27% | 48% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lille (rating 1504 vs 1566).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nice | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nice 1–4–1 Lille
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nice |
| 29/10/25 France Ligue 1 | Nice | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lille |
| 17/01/25 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Nice |
| 10/11/24 France Ligue 1 | Nice | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Lille |
| 19/05/24 France Ligue 1 | Lille | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Nice |
| 11/08/23 France Ligue 1 | Nice | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lille |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Brest | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Lorient | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | Angers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 12 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Le Mans | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | PSG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 18 | Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nice | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Paris FC | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Lens | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Le Havre | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Lille (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Lille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 28/08 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nice vs Lille?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lille win (47%). Probabilities: Nice 24%, draw 29%, Lille 47%.
How many goals are expected in Nice vs Lille?
The model expects 2.17 goals (Nice 0.86 · Lille 1.31), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Lille?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.