Football · France Ligue 1 · 19/09, 20:45
Prediction: Lyon vs Rennes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.52Total
Lyon1.94
Rennes1.58
1X2
Lyon
Draw
Rennes
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Lyon
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Rennes
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lyon
3–3
Rennes
(6 last)
- Lyon4-2Rennes
- Rennes3-1Lyon
- Lyon4-1Rennes
- Rennes3-0Lyon
- Lyon2-3Rennes
- Rennes0-1Lyon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lyon 1534 · Rennes 1552
| Lyon | Draw | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lyon | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.2 | 3.6 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyon 3–0–3 Rennes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 France Ligue 1 | Lyon | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Rennes |
| 14/09/25 France Ligue 1 | Rennes | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Lyon |
| 26/04/25 France Ligue 1 | Lyon | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Rennes |
| 18/08/24 France Ligue 1 | Rennes | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Lyon |
| 26/01/24 France Ligue 1 | Lyon | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Rennes |
| 12/11/23 France Ligue 1 | Rennes | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lyon |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Brest | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Lorient | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | Angers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 12 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Le Mans | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| 15 | PSG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 18 | Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lyon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/09 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 20 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Rennes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Le Mans France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
2-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lyon vs Rennes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyon win (45%). Probabilities: Lyon 45%, draw 24%, Rennes 31%.
How many goals are expected in Lyon vs Rennes?
The model expects 3.52 goals (Lyon 1.94 · Rennes 1.58), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Rennes?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.