Prediction: Marseille vs PSG
- PSG5-0Marseille
- PSG2-2Marseille
- Marseille1-0PSG
- PSG3-1Marseille
- Marseille0-3PSG
- Marseille0-2PSG
| Marseille | Draw | PSG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Market | 13% | 18% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSG (rating 1475 vs 1534).
- H2H favours PSG: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marseille | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 3.5 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marseille 1–1–4 PSG
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Marseille |
| 08/01/26 France Super Cup | PSG | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Marseille |
| 22/09/25 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 1-0 HT 1-0 | PSG |
| 16/03/25 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Marseille |
| 27/10/24 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 0-3 HT 0-3 | PSG |
| 31/03/24 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 0-2 HT 0-0 | PSG |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 9 | Brest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 11 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 15 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 18 | Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marseille | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Monaco | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Nantes | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Lorient | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: PSG (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marseille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 10/04 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
PSG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 28/08 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Angers France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marseille vs PSG?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSG win (69%). Probabilities: Marseille 12%, draw 19%, PSG 69%.
How many goals are expected in Marseille vs PSG?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Marseille 0.84 · PSG 2.25), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs PSG?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.