Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 18/09, 14:00

Prediction: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Team pages: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1.03

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq1.84

1X2

20% 25% 55%

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Draw Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDWLLL

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWLWWD

Head-to-head

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–3–3 Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (6 last)

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq3-1Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed0-0Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1-2Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed0-0Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq4-0Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed3-3Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1447 · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1543

	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Draw	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	20%	25%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (rating 1447 vs 1543).
H2H favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.60

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:08 +5’	4.50	3.60	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–3–3 Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	3-1 HT 1-0	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
12/09/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
28/08/25 Israel Cup	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	1-2 HT 0-2	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
14/02/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
17/09/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	4-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
26/04/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	3-3	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ironi Nesher	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
3	Sport Club Tira	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
4	Beitar Nahariya	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
6	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
8	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
12	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
13	Hapoel Beit Shean	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
16	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
17	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
18	FC Tzeirey Tamra	2	0	0	2	2	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	1-3 L	2-2 D
Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm	1-2 L	3-1 W
Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	2-1 W	0-0 D
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	2-1 W	1-2 L
Hapoel Ironi Arraba	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

WDLLWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
13/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
06/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
30/01	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
26/01	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-3	9	3	L
20/01	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-6	3	3	L
16/01	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/01	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-1	11	5	W

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

WDLWDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-2	5	7	D
27/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	3	9	W
13/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	1-3	2-4	7	4	L
06/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
31/01	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/01	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
16/01	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
10/01	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
06/01	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-1	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Migdal Haemeq win (55%). Probabilities: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 20%, draw 25%, Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 55%.

How many goals are expected in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1.03 · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.