Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 23/09, 19:45
Prediction: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye · Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1.48
Hapoel Tirat Karmel1.16
1X2
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Draw
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
1–0
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
(1 last)
- Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye3-1Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1471 · Hapoel Tirat Karmel 1425
| Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye | Draw | Hapoel Tirat Karmel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye (rating 1471 vs 1425).
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye | Hapoel Tirat Karmel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.7 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1–0–0 Hapoel Tirat Karmel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/26 Israel Liga Alef North | Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Hapoel Tirat Karmel |
Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ironi Nesher | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Beitar Nahariya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Sport Club Tira | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 7 | Hapoel Migdal Haemeq | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Hapoel Nof HaGalil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hapoel Tirat Karmel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 12 | Maccabi Umm al-Fahm | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 13 | Hapoel Bnei Jat United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 15 | Hapoel Beit Shean | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | FC Tzeirey Tamra | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye | Hapoel Tirat Karmel |
|---|---|---|
| Ironi Nesher | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Maccabi Achi Nazareth | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Hapoel Tirat Karmel (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North |
1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 09/09 | Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 27/02 | Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 20/02 | Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/02 | Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 06/02 | Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 30/01 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/01 | Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/01 | Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/09 | Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 19/02 | Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/02 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/02 | FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 30/01 | Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/01 | Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/01 | Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/01 | Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 06/01 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye win (44%). Probabilities: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 44%, draw 27%, Hapoel Tirat Karmel 29%.
How many goals are expected in Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1.48 · Hapoel Tirat Karmel 1.16), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.