Football · Spain La Liga · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna

Team pages: Atletico Madrid · Osasuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Atletico Madrid1.93

Osasuna0.93

1X2

59% 24% 16%

Atletico Madrid Draw Osasuna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWDWL

Osasuna 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid 4–2 Osasuna (6 last)

Osasuna1-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Osasuna
Osasuna2-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Osasuna
Atletico Madrid1-4Osasuna
Osasuna0-2Atletico Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid 1546 · Osasuna 1475

	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Osasuna
Our model	60%	24%	17%
Market	59%	25%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (rating 1546 vs 1475).
H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.31 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 5.97

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +3’	1.57	3.80	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:10 +6’	1.51	4.25	5.85
22:06 +11’	1.52▲	4.31▲	5.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 4–0–2 Osasuna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
18/10/25 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Osasuna
15/05/25 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid
12/01/25 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Osasuna
19/05/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-4 HT 0-1	Osasuna
28/09/23 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
3	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
4	Deportivo A Coruna	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
6	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
7	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
8	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
10	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Racing Santander	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
12	Rayo Vallecano	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
13	Real Sociedad	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
14	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
15	Getafe	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
16	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
17	Celta Vigo	4	0	2	2	1	4	2
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Valencia	4	0	1	3	1	9	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna
Athletic Bilbao	0-3 L	0-1 L
Sevilla	3-1 W	2-1 W
Celta Vigo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Osasuna (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Madrid

WWLWWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
02/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
25/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	3	0	W

Osasuna

LWLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
27/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
24/08	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
23/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
12/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
08/05	Levante Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
02/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/04	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid win (59%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 59%, draw 24%, Osasuna 16%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Atletico Madrid 1.93 · Osasuna 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.