Football · Spain La Liga · 20/09, 16:15

Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Atletico Madrid · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Atletico Madrid1.36

Real Madrid2

1X2

25% 24% 51%

Atletico Madrid Draw Real Madrid

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWDWL

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid 2–1–3 Real Madrid (6 last)

Real Madrid3-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-2Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid5-2Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-1Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid1-1Atletico Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid 1526 · Real Madrid 1642

	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
Our model	25%	24%	51%
Market	25%	24%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1526 vs 1642).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	3.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.90

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.78
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.65 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.94 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +6’	4.33	4.10	1.65
17:21 +1’	3.70▼	3.90▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:01 +30’	3.86	3.62	1.89
20:37 +20’	3.90▲	3.73▲	1.89
21:43 +26’	3.90	3.71▼	1.90▲
22:51 +4’	3.78▼	3.67▼	1.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 2–1–3 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	3-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
08/01/26 Spain Super Cup	Atletico Madrid	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
27/09/25 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	5-2 HT 2-2	Real Madrid
13/03/25 UEFA Champions League	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Madrid
04/03/25 UEFA Champions League	Real Madrid	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid
08/02/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	21	4	15
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	14	4	12
3	CD Alaves	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
4	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Deportivo A Coruna	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
6	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
7	Espanyol	5	2	1	2	8	5	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
10	Racing Santander	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
11	Real Sociedad	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	5	8	7
13	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
14	Getafe	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
15	Celta Vigo	6	0	4	2	3	6	4
16	Rayo Vallecano	5	1	1	3	8	14	4
17	Malaga	5	0	3	2	2	8	3
18	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	6	13	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	1	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao	0-3 L	4-2 W
Sevilla	3-1 W	1-0 W
Malaga	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Madrid

WWLWWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
02/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
25/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	3	0	W

Real Madrid

WLWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
03/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Madrid win (51%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 25%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 51%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Atletico Madrid 1.36 · Real Madrid 2), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.