Football · Spain La Liga · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

Team pages: Osasuna · Rayo Vallecano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Osasuna1.48

Rayo Vallecano1.14

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Osasuna Draw Rayo Vallecano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Osasuna 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWWLL

Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLDLWL

Head-to-head

Osasuna 3–1–2 Rayo Vallecano (6 last)

Rayo Vallecano1-3Osasuna
Osasuna2-0Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna1-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano3-1Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano2-1Osasuna
Osasuna1-0Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Osasuna 1470 · Rayo Vallecano 1478

	Osasuna	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	43%	30%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Osasuna: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Osasuna	Rayo Vallecano
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.34 ★
2	3.75 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.42

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +3’	2.00	3.20	3.75
19:03 +1’	2.15▲	3.10▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +17’	2.13	3.34	3.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Osasuna 3–1–2 Rayo Vallecano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-3 HT 0-1	Osasuna
14/09/25 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	2-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
19/01/25 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-1 HT 0-1	Rayo Vallecano
16/09/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	3-1 HT 0-1	Osasuna
20/04/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	2-1 HT 0-1	Osasuna
15/12/23 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	14	4	12
3	CD Alaves	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
4	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
6	Deportivo A Coruna	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
7	Espanyol	5	2	1	2	8	5	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
10	Racing Santander	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
11	Real Sociedad	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	5	8	7
13	Levante	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
14	Getafe	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Rayo Vallecano	5	1	1	3	8	14	4
16	Celta Vigo	5	0	3	2	2	5	3
17	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
18	Malaga	4	0	2	2	1	7	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	6	13	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	1	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Osasuna	Rayo Vallecano
CD Alaves	2-5 L	1-1 D
Getafe	1-0 W	2-0 W
Barcelona	1-2 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Vallecano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Osasuna

LLLLLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
06/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	1	3	L
31/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
27/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
24/08	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
23/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
12/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
08/05	Levante Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
02/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Rayo Vallecano

WDDWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
11/05	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
03/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Osasuna win (43%). Probabilities: Osasuna 43%, draw 29%, Rayo Vallecano 28%.

How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Osasuna 1.48 · Rayo Vallecano 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.