Football · Spain La Liga · 19/09, 16:15

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs CD Alaves

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao · CD Alaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Athletic Bilbao1.79

CD Alaves1.01

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Athletic Bilbao Draw CD Alaves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLWWD

CD Alaves 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDWWL

Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao 3–1–2 CD Alaves (6 last)

CD Alaves2-4Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-0Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao2-0CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao 1512 · CD Alaves 1536

	Athletic Bilbao	Draw	CD Alaves
Our model	54%	25%	20%
Market	54%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao	CD Alaves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.93 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:33 +14’	1.73	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:51 +28’	1.71	3.62	4.87
20:35 +10’	1.66▼	3.93▲	5.03▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao 3–1–2 CD Alaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	2-4 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao
13/09/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
22/07/25 Elite Club Friendlies	CD Alaves	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
11/05/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
15/12/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao
16/03/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	2-0 HT 2-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	14	4	12
3	CD Alaves	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
4	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
6	Deportivo A Coruna	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
7	Espanyol	5	2	1	2	8	5	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
10	Racing Santander	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
11	Real Sociedad	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	5	8	7
13	Levante	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
14	Getafe	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Rayo Vallecano	5	1	1	3	8	14	4
16	Celta Vigo	5	0	3	2	2	5	3
17	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
18	Malaga	4	0	2	2	1	7	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	6	13	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	1	10	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao	CD Alaves
Elche	1-1 D	1-1 D
Barcelona	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao

WLLDLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
02/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	4-2	7	6	W

CD Alaves

LDWWLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/05	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
02/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-4	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao vs CD Alaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao win (54%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao 54%, draw 26%, CD Alaves 20%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao vs CD Alaves?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Athletic Bilbao 1.79 · CD Alaves 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs CD Alaves?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.