Football · Spain La Liga · 20/09, 21:00

Prediction: Valencia vs Real Sociedad

Team pages: Valencia · Real Sociedad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Valencia1.28

Real Sociedad1.34

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Valencia Draw Real Sociedad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Valencia 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDLLLL

Real Sociedad 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLLWDW

Head-to-head

Valencia 2–1–3 Real Sociedad (6 last)

Real Sociedad3-4Valencia
Valencia1-1Real Sociedad
Valencia1-0Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad3-0Valencia
Real Sociedad1-0Valencia
Valencia0-1Real Sociedad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valencia 1452 · Real Sociedad 1471

	Valencia	Draw	Real Sociedad
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	35%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Sociedad: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valencia	Real Sociedad
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.81 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +6’	2.70	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:58 +34’	2.66	3.32	2.61
19:58 +60’	2.69▲	3.36▲	2.63▲
21:32 +37’	2.81▲	3.36	2.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 2–1–3 Real Sociedad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	3-4 HT 1-2	Valencia
16/08/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad
19/01/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad
28/09/24 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	3-0 HT 1-0	Valencia
16/05/24 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	1-0 HT 1-0	Valencia
27/09/23 Spain La Liga	Valencia	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	21	4	15
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	14	4	12
3	CD Alaves	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
4	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Deportivo A Coruna	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
6	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
7	Espanyol	5	2	1	2	8	5	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
10	Racing Santander	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
11	Real Sociedad	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	5	8	7
13	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
14	Getafe	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
15	Celta Vigo	6	0	4	2	3	6	4
16	Rayo Vallecano	5	1	1	3	8	14	4
17	Malaga	5	0	3	2	2	8	3
18	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	6	13	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	1	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valencia	Real Sociedad
Sevilla	0-1 L	0-1 L
Real Betis	0-1 L	0-1 L
Celta Vigo	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valencia

LWDWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
06/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
30/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
25/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
22/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
23/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
17/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	2-1	4-3	2	5	W
14/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
10/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L

Real Sociedad

LDDLDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	6	W
03/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
29/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
21/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-2	3-4	3	5	L
14/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
09/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
04/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Sociedad win (37%). Probabilities: Valencia 35%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad 37%.

How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Valencia 1.28 · Real Sociedad 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.