Football · Spain La Liga · 19/09, 21:00

Prediction: Sevilla vs Barcelona

Team pages: Sevilla · Barcelona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Sevilla0.78

Barcelona2.49

1X2

9% 17% 74%

Sevilla Draw Barcelona

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sevilla 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWLDW

Barcelona 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Sevilla 1–5 Barcelona (6 last)

Barcelona5-2Sevilla
Sevilla4-1Barcelona
Sevilla1-4Barcelona
Barcelona5-1Sevilla
Sevilla1-2Barcelona
Barcelona1-0Sevilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sevilla 1546 · Barcelona 1646

	Sevilla	Draw	Barcelona
Our model	9%	17%	74%
Market	9%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1546 vs 1646).
H2H favours Barcelona: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sevilla	Barcelona
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	2.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	3.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X5.75

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.95

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 10.00▲	Bet365 10.00
X	5.00 → 5.75▲	Pinn 5.80
2	1.33 → 1.25▼	Pinn 1.26 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +13’	8.00	5.00	1.33
17:14 +2’	10.00▲	5.75▲	1.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +2’	9.46	5.62	1.26
19:49 +65’	9.84▲	5.76▲	1.27▲
21:45 +23’	9.97▲	5.80▲	1.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla 1–0–5 Barcelona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	5-2 HT 3-1	Sevilla
05/10/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	4-1 HT 2-1	Barcelona
09/02/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-4 HT 1-1	Barcelona
20/10/24 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	5-1 HT 3-0	Sevilla
26/05/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-2 HT 1-1	Barcelona
29/09/23 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	1-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	21	4	15
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	14	4	12
3	CD Alaves	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
4	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Deportivo A Coruna	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
6	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
7	Espanyol	5	2	1	2	8	5	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
10	Racing Santander	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
11	Real Sociedad	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	5	8	7
13	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
14	Getafe	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
15	Celta Vigo	6	0	4	2	3	6	4
16	Rayo Vallecano	5	1	1	3	8	14	4
17	Malaga	5	0	3	2	2	8	3
18	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	6	13	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	1	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sevilla	Barcelona
Valencia	1-0 W	5-0 W
Athletic Bilbao	3-1 W	2-0 W
Rayo Vallecano	2-1 W	5-2 W
Real Madrid	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sevilla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
09/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
04/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Barcelona

WWLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	4-2	5	2	W
06/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
31/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	2-1	5-2	9	1	W
27/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
23/08	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	1	1	W
23/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
17/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
10/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
02/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs Barcelona?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona win (74%). Probabilities: Sevilla 9%, draw 17%, Barcelona 74%.

How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Barcelona?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Sevilla 0.78 · Barcelona 2.49), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Barcelona?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.