Football · Spain La Liga · 15/09, 19:00

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Espanyol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Rayo Vallecano1.5

Espanyol1.09

1X2

45% 28% 27%

Rayo Vallecano Draw Espanyol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rayo Vallecano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWLDLW

Espanyol 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Rayo Vallecano 2–4 Espanyol (6 last)

Rayo Vallecano1-0Espanyol
Espanyol1-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano0-4Espanyol
Espanyol2-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-2Espanyol
Espanyol0-2Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayo Vallecano 1494 · Espanyol 1509

	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Espanyol
Our model	45%	28%	26%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Espanyol: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.47
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.70 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +15’	2.05	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:09 +8’	2.01	3.43	3.66
22:09 +9’	2.03▲	3.47▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayo Vallecano 2–0–4 Espanyol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-0 HT 0-0	Espanyol
07/12/25 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	1-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
04/04/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	0-4 HT 0-2	Espanyol
31/08/24 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	2-1 HT 1-1	Rayo Vallecano
21/05/23 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-2 HT 1-1	Espanyol
19/08/22 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	0-2 HT 0-1	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
3	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
4	Deportivo A Coruna	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
6	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
7	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
8	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
10	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Racing Santander	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
12	Rayo Vallecano	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
13	Real Sociedad	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
14	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
15	Getafe	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
16	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
17	Celta Vigo	4	0	2	2	1	4	2
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Valencia	4	0	1	3	1	9	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol
Sevilla	1-2 L	1-2 L
Real Sociedad	3-3 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Vallecano (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rayo Vallecano

DWDDWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
11/05	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
03/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
26/04	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	3-3	6	8	D

Espanyol

LDLLWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
22/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
16/08	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	0	3	W
23/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	8	0	W
09/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
03/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
27/04	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
23/04	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayo Vallecano win (45%). Probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 28%, Espanyol 27%.

How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Rayo Vallecano 1.5 · Espanyol 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.