Football · Spain La Liga · 15/09, 21:30

Prediction: Elche vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Elche · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Elche0.73

Real Madrid2.34

1X2

9% 18% 73%

Elche Draw Real Madrid

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Elche 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDDLL

Real Madrid 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Elche 0–3–3 Real Madrid (6 last)

Real Madrid4-1Elche
Elche2-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4-0Elche
Elche0-3Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-2Elche
Elche0-0Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elche 1475 · Real Madrid 1627

	Elche	Draw	Real Madrid
Our model	9%	18%	73%
Market	9%	18%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1475 vs 1627).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elche	Real Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	3.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X5.25

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.02

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.65 ★
2	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +1’	10.00	5.25	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:09 +7’	8.79	5.49	1.28
22:10 +8’	9.64▲	5.65▲	1.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche 0–3–3 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-1 HT 2-0	Elche
23/11/25 Spain La Liga	Elche	2-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
15/02/23 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-0 HT 3-0	Elche
19/10/22 Spain La Liga	Elche	0-3 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
23/01/22 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-2 HT 0-1	Elche
20/01/22 Spain Copa del Rey	Elche	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
3	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
4	Deportivo A Coruna	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
6	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
7	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
8	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
10	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Racing Santander	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
12	Rayo Vallecano	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
13	Real Sociedad	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
14	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
15	Getafe	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
16	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
17	Celta Vigo	4	0	2	2	1	4	2
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Valencia	4	0	1	3	1	9	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elche	Real Madrid
Barcelona	0-5 L	0-2 L
Real Betis	1-2 L	0-1 L
Oviedo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elche

WWLDLWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-3	2-3	10	3	L
23/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
17/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
23/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
17/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
09/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	9	D
03/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
26/04	Oviedo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
22/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	13	5	W

Real Madrid

DWLWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
03/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
24/04	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elche vs Real Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Madrid win (73%). Probabilities: Elche 9%, draw 18%, Real Madrid 73%.

How many goals are expected in Elche vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Elche 0.73 · Real Madrid 2.34), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Elche vs Real Madrid?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.