Football · Spain La Liga · 15/09, 20:00
Prediction: CD Alaves vs Valencia
Team pages: CD Alaves · Valencia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
CD Alaves1.41
Valencia1.1
1X2
CD Alaves
Draw
Valencia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Alaves
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Valencia
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Alaves
3–2–1
Valencia
(6 last)
- Valencia3-2CD Alaves
- CD Alaves0-0Valencia
- CD Alaves1-0Valencia
- Valencia2-2CD Alaves
- Valencia0-1CD Alaves
- Valencia0-1CD Alaves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Alaves 1554 · Valencia 1482
| CD Alaves | Draw | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Alaves (rating 1554 vs 1482).
- H2H favours CD Alaves: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Alaves | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Alaves 3–2–1 Valencia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 3-2 HT 0-1 | CD Alaves |
| 20/10/25 Spain La Liga | CD Alaves | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
| 14/05/25 Spain La Liga | CD Alaves | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
| 22/12/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 2-2 HT 0-1 | CD Alaves |
| 24/07/24 Elite Club Friendlies | Valencia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Alaves |
| 05/05/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Alaves |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Deportivo A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | CD Alaves | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Sevilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Racing Santander | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 4 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 19 | Malaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Valencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Alaves | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Barcelona | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Athletic Bilbao | 2-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Alaves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/08 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Oviedo Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 02/05 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Mallorca Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
Valencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Girona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Alaves vs Valencia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Alaves win (43%). Probabilities: CD Alaves 43%, draw 30%, Valencia 28%.
How many goals are expected in CD Alaves vs Valencia?
The model expects 2.51 goals (CD Alaves 1.41 · Valencia 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Alaves vs Valencia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.