Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali

Team pages: FC Iberia 1999 · Samgurali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

FC Iberia 19991.77

Samgurali1.12

1X2

52% 25% 23%

FC Iberia 1999 Draw Samgurali

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Iberia 1999 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDLWLL

Samgurali 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Iberia 1999 4–1–1 Samgurali (6 last)

Samgurali3-2FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19992-1Samgurali
FC Iberia 19992-0Samgurali
Samgurali0-1FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19992-1Samgurali
Samgurali0-0FC Iberia 1999

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Iberia 1999 1467 · Samgurali 1518

	FC Iberia 1999	Draw	Samgurali
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Samgurali (rating 1467 vs 1518).
H2H favours FC Iberia 1999: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Iberia 1999	Samgurali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +5’	1.75	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Iberia 1999 4–1–1 Samgurali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	3-2 HT 2-0	FC Iberia 1999
07/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	2-1 HT 2-0	Samgurali
08/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	2-0 HT 0-0	Samgurali
29/08/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Iberia 1999
11/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	2-1 HT 0-0	Samgurali
28/03/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Iberia 1999

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	23	12	6	5	30	19	42
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	22	10	7	5	35	26	37
3	Dinamo Batumi	23	10	7	6	38	32	37
4	FC Iberia 1999	21	10	4	7	30	24	34
5	Samgurali	23	9	5	9	32	41	32
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	23	8	7	8	36	27	31
7	Dila Gori	22	9	3	10	27	24	30
8	FC Gagra	23	6	9	8	23	30	27
9	FC Spaeri	23	5	8	10	30	35	23
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	23	2	8	13	17	40	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Iberia 1999	Samgurali
FC Gagra	0-2 L	0-0 D
Torpedo Kutaisi	3-4 L	2-1 W
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Rustavi	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Spaeri	1-1 D	4-3 W
Dinamo Batumi	1-0 W	0-4 L
Dinamo Tbilisi	0-2 L	3-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Samgurali (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Iberia 1999

DLWLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
15/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	3-4	11	4	L
23/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/06	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
12/06	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
29/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
25/05	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
16/05	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
10/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	1	7	D

Samgurali

LWWWLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
18/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-5	8	3	L
13/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
29/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
25/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-2	3	9	W
21/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Iberia 1999 win (52%). Probabilities: FC Iberia 1999 52%, draw 25%, Samgurali 23%.

How many goals are expected in FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali?

The model expects 2.89 goals (FC Iberia 1999 1.77 · Samgurali 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.