Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 14/09, 17:00

Prediction: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali

Team pages: Torpedo Kutaisi · Samgurali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Torpedo Kutaisi2.38

Samgurali1.64

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Torpedo Kutaisi Draw Samgurali

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Torpedo Kutaisi 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Samgurali 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Torpedo Kutaisi 4–1–1 Samgurali (6 last)

Samgurali2-1Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi6-1Samgurali
Samgurali2-4Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi6-2Samgurali
Samgurali0-1Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi1-1Samgurali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torpedo Kutaisi 1482 · Samgurali 1482

	Torpedo Kutaisi	Draw	Samgurali
Our model	54%	21%	25%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Torpedo Kutaisi: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torpedo Kutaisi	Samgurali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.80 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.60 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +8’	1.73	3.60	3.80
15:42 +5’	1.85▲	3.50▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +95’	1.95	3.32	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torpedo Kutaisi 4–1–1 Samgurali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	2-1 HT 1-0	Torpedo Kutaisi
21/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	6-1 HT 2-0	Samgurali
22/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	2-4 HT 1-1	Torpedo Kutaisi
13/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	6-2 HT 3-1	Samgurali
15/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-1 HT 0-1	Torpedo Kutaisi
05/04/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	1-1 HT 0-1	Samgurali

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	25	12	7	6	31	21	43
2	Dinamo Batumi	25	12	7	6	41	32	43
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	24	10	9	5	36	27	39
4	FC Iberia 1999	23	11	4	8	32	27	37
5	Dila Gori	24	11	3	10	31	25	36
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	25	8	9	8	38	29	33
7	Samgurali	25	9	5	11	34	46	32
8	FC Gagra	25	6	10	9	24	32	28
9	FC Spaeri	25	5	10	10	33	38	25
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	25	2	10	13	19	42	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torpedo Kutaisi	Samgurali
FC Gagra	1-1 D	0-0 D
Dinamo Tbilisi	1-1 D	3-5 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	0-2 L	2-1 W
Dila Gori	2-2 D	1-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	4-3 W	1-2 L
FC Rustavi	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Spaeri	0-0 D	4-3 W
Dinamo Batumi	2-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Torpedo Kutaisi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torpedo Kutaisi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
31/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
22/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
15/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-1	4-3	10	4	W
07/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
22/06	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/06	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
13/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
28/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	1-2	10	4	L

Samgurali

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
18/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-5	8	3	L
13/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
29/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-2	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torpedo Kutaisi win (53%). Probabilities: Torpedo Kutaisi 53%, draw 23%, Samgurali 24%.

How many goals are expected in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Torpedo Kutaisi 2.38 · Samgurali 1.64), with a 61% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.