Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 10/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Team pages: FC Gagra · Torpedo Kutaisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

FC Gagra1.09

Torpedo Kutaisi1.6

1X2

25% 26% 48%

FC Gagra Draw Torpedo Kutaisi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gagra 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDDLWL

Torpedo Kutaisi 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWDLD

Head-to-head

FC Gagra 1–1–4 Torpedo Kutaisi (6 last)

Torpedo Kutaisi1-2FC Gagra
FC Gagra2-2Torpedo Kutaisi
FC Gagra0-2Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi2-1FC Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi2-1FC Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi2-0FC Gagra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gagra 1529 · Torpedo Kutaisi 1474

	FC Gagra	Draw	Torpedo Kutaisi
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gagra (rating 1529 vs 1474).
H2H favours Torpedo Kutaisi: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gagra	Torpedo Kutaisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +10’	3.50	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gagra 1–1–4 Torpedo Kutaisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Gagra
17/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	2-2 HT 1-1	Torpedo Kutaisi
17/10/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	0-2 HT 0-0	Torpedo Kutaisi
03/08/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
24/04/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
27/11/24 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Torpedo Kutaisi	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Gagra

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	24	12	6	6	30	20	42
2	Dinamo Batumi	24	11	7	6	39	32	40
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	23	10	8	5	36	27	38
4	FC Iberia 1999	22	11	4	7	32	25	37
5	Dila Gori	23	10	3	10	28	24	33
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	24	8	8	8	37	28	32
7	Samgurali	24	9	5	10	33	43	32
8	FC Gagra	24	6	9	9	23	31	27
9	FC Spaeri	24	5	9	10	32	37	24
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	24	2	9	13	19	42	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gagra	Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila Gori	0-1 L	2-2 D
FC Iberia 1999	2-0 W	4-3 W
FC Rustavi	0-3 L	0-1 L
FC Spaeri	1-1 D	0-0 D
Dinamo Batumi	2-2 D	2-3 L
Samgurali	0-0 D	1-2 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-1 D	0-2 L
Dinamo Tbilisi	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gagra (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gagra

WWWDDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
28/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W

Torpedo Kutaisi

WLLLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
31/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
22/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
15/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-1	4-3	10	4	W
07/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
22/06	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/06	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
13/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
28/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	1-2	10	4	L
24/05	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Torpedo Kutaisi win (48%). Probabilities: FC Gagra 25%, draw 26%, Torpedo Kutaisi 48%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?

The model expects 2.69 goals (FC Gagra 1.09 · Torpedo Kutaisi 1.6), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.