Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 14/09, 19:00

Prediction: Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Gagra

Team pages: Dinamo Tbilisi · FC Gagra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Dinamo Tbilisi1.74

FC Gagra0.92

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Dinamo Tbilisi Draw FC Gagra

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Tbilisi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWDD

FC Gagra 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDLWLD

Head-to-head

Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1–4 FC Gagra (6 last)

FC Gagra2-1Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi0-1FC Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi2-4FC Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi0-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-1Dinamo Tbilisi
FC Gagra0-4Dinamo Tbilisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Tbilisi 1491 · FC Gagra 1560

	Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	FC Gagra
Our model	56%	26%	19%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gagra (rating 1491 vs 1560).
H2H favours FC Gagra: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Tbilisi	FC Gagra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.63
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.66
2	5.50 → 4.75▼	Pinn 4.93 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:50 +2’	1.50	3.80	5.50
15:00 +53’	1.61▲	3.60▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +8’	1.63	3.66	4.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1–4 FC Gagra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	2-1 HT 2-0	Dinamo Tbilisi
21/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
21/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	2-4 HT 1-2	FC Gagra
13/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
16/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-1 HT 1-1	Dinamo Tbilisi
05/04/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	0-4 HT 0-2	Dinamo Tbilisi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	25	12	7	6	31	21	43
2	Dinamo Batumi	25	12	7	6	41	32	43
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	24	10	9	5	36	27	39
4	FC Iberia 1999	23	11	4	8	32	27	37
5	Dila Gori	24	11	3	10	31	25	36
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	25	8	9	8	38	29	33
7	Samgurali	25	9	5	11	34	46	32
8	FC Gagra	25	6	10	9	24	32	28
9	FC Spaeri	25	5	10	10	33	38	25
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	25	2	10	13	19	42	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Tbilisi	FC Gagra
Meshakhte Tkibuli	0-0 D	1-1 D
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dila Gori	2-1 W	0-1 L
FC Rustavi	0-3 L	0-3 L
FC Spaeri	2-1 W	1-1 D
Dinamo Batumi	2-1 W	2-2 D
Samgurali	5-3 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Tbilisi (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Tbilisi

LWLWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
06/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
31/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
09/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
23/06	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
18/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	5-3	2	3	W
14/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-2	13	0	L
30/05	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	6-1	7	6	W
24/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	9	0	L

FC Gagra

WWDDDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
05/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
28/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Gagra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Tbilisi win (56%). Probabilities: Dinamo Tbilisi 56%, draw 25%, FC Gagra 19%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Gagra?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Dinamo Tbilisi 1.74 · FC Gagra 0.92), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Gagra?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.